Auto sector: Opportunity, trends and outlook

The Indian auto sector has been witnessing testing times over the past few years and COVID-19 has proven to be a litmus test. The sector has attempted to use this time to introspect; some have even tried to use this as an opportunity to reskill staff, strategise to improve in the future and evaluate new technology.

Although post August 2020, the sector has shown signs of recovery and the upward sales trends are a welcome sign but the road to recovery is long. The industry is cautiously looking forward to 2021, although a lot will hinge on how the economy grows.

This publication explores the current market opportunity for the Indian auto industry. It also captures the key trends and recent developments that are shaping the industry.

Market landscape

• Industry to grow at 12.7% CAGR between 2019-2026 to reach USD 512 billion by 2026
• Services market to grow at 7.4% CAGR between 2019-2026
• 7% share in India’s GDP (2019), 35 million employment generated, USD 222 billion market size
• New vehicles in India being sold through physical dealership and e-commerce
• Multiple used vehicle sales platforms and models providing options to the consumers

Key market development & trends

Growth drivers for the sector continue to fuel sales of automobiles

• Increasing domestic customer base and favourable demographics
• Rapid urbanisation
• Support infrastructure and rising investment by foreign companies

Government regulations will provide growth impetus

• Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26
• National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020
• National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project

The PLI scheme and National Auto Policy will make Indian auto manufacturers globally competitive

• Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI): The government announced an outlay of USD 8,149 million10 over the next five years towards the automobile sector
• National Auto Policy roll out a long-term roadmap for the automotive industry and define emission standards
• Economic measures against COVID-19 to provide support for companies to be able to maintain high liquidity levels

Rise in digital distribution channels and market entry of established international players is transforming the industry

Reducing duration of ownership and increasing premiumisation of vehicles is changing the industry landscape

Increasing finance penetration and proliferation of EVs will shape the industry going forward

Challenges for the sector

• Lack of adequate skilled labour
• Low Information and Communication Technology (ICT) adoption
• Disruptions in the form of new regulations

COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the industry, with significant disruptions in the supply chain and manufacturing. The current economic revival will help to sustain auto sales in 2021

Outlook

• The Indian auto market is expected to witness upswing in sales mainly due to increasing focus on digital services offerings and burgeoning EVs market
• Online platforms are well poised to grow and further consolidate their position in the Indian market as post COVID-19, personal transport will increase amongst consumers due to health and hygiene issues